Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - June 12

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - June 12

Lawmaker proposes 60% tax on land purchases by U.S. adversaries

Propane prices are at their lowest start-of-summer levels since the Covid-19 lockdown three years ago. Major U.S. freight railroads have reached a series of labor-friendly agreements with several unions, addressing concerns like paid sick leave and predictable shifts. Unlike previous tumultuous negotiations, these deals aim to improve worker morale and attract new talent. More in Markets section. OMB is nearing the end of its review of the EPA's final rule for volume requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2023 and beyond. More in Energy section.

"If even half of it is true, he's toast." — William Barr, an attorney general under former President Donald Trump, says the charges against his ex-boss over handling of classified government documents seem"very, very damning." Trump is set to be arraigned tomorrow in a Miami federal court — and then will host the first fund-raiser for his 2024 campaign.

U.S. equities Friday: All three major indices registered modest gains on Friday after dipping into or near negative territory around midday. All three notched gains for the week, with the S&P finishing the week up 0.4% and registering its seventh winning week. The Dow was up 0.3% while the Nasdaq advanced 0.1%.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently commented on the U.S. economy, describing it as"very, very hot," albeit not as strong as it was six to 12 months ago. He stated that the U.S. is currently experiencing an underlying inflation rate of 4.5-5%. Summers participated in the Caixin Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore through a video link.

Some analysts believe that investors are underestimating the chances of a rate hike this week. Futures traders favor a rate hike of at least a quarter percentage-point in July by roughly 2-to-1. For December, the distribution of potential rate outcomes is distributed around the current 5% to 5.25% range, with similar chances for boosts or cuts. • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro slightly firmer against the greenback.

Coal has proved a contentious issue for investors, particularly for those looking at ESG factors. While Glencore's rivals are in the process of divesting from coal, it has opted not to—instead it plans to wind down its coal business and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged President Biden to appoint an independent mediator to address the ongoing labor dispute, as disruptions could impact the peak shipping season. An agreement in the labor dispute is particularly important for seasonal consumer products like back-to-school items.

• EU deforestation law not seen affecting major Malaysia palm oil exporters. Major Malaysian palm oil exporters, such as Sime Darby Plantation and United Plantations, claim that the European Union deforestation laws will not impact their exports as they stopped planting on deforested land years ago. Executives from both companies feel that these regulations primarily affect smaller farmers who may struggle with supply chain traceability.

— China's role in Iranian drone supply chain for Russia. Western researchers have found evidence that China has been supplying Iran with crucial parts for their drone program, despite U.S. efforts to hinder the supply chain. China's support enables Iran to rapidly build and send drones to Russia. With Iran's persistent drone use, Ukraine faces challenges in maintaining its air defenses.

POLICY UPDATE — Lawmaker proposes 60% tax on land purchases by U.S. adversaries. The House of Representatives' tax-writing committee chairman, Rep. Jason Smith , has sponsored a bill that seeks to prevent foreign adversaries, such as China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela, from acquiring U.S. agricultural land by imposing a 60% excise tax on their purchases. The measure, co-sponsored by Rep.

— The economic recovery in China has been slow, but the country's central bank Governor Yi Gang expressed confidence that they will achieve their economic growth targets. Yi attributed weak consumer and producer price inflation to base effects and noted the lag between supply and demand recovery. He stated that domestic production is recovering with policies supporting economic stability, but consumer demand remains weak. Recent data showed a small increase in CPI and a contraction in PPI.

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