And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.
“But, conversely, the first issue Fitch highlights in their commentary is concerns about governance, most notably the debt limit standoffs,” Zhao said. “Usually, fiscal policy affects the labor market fairly slowly, but political crises have the potential to have a more immediate impact and if there’s a government shutdown or similar crisis in the cards, that risks pushing the economy off the tightrope to a soft landing and into a recession.
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