Market reacts: Odds of another BoC rate hike dive after surprise drop in inflation

Canada’s annual inflation rate edged down to 3.8% in September on broad-based price reductions for some travel-related services, durable goods and groceries, weaker than analysts’ expectations for annual inflation to remain at 4.0%.

Markets immediately reacted by sending the Canadian dollar lower by about half a cent. Implied probabilities in the swaps market now suggest the odds of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada this month are much lower. The following table details how money markets are pricing in further moves in the Bank of Canada overnight rate, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of 0837 am ET. The current Bank of Canada overnight rate is 5%. While the bank moves in quarter point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.

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