The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, is testing its support level at 4200, which is also roughly the location of the 200-day Moving Average of SPX.
Market breadth has been horrific in the past week. As a result, both breadth oscillators are on sell signals. Yes, they are heavily oversold, but that alone is not a buy signal. We would need to see at least two consecutive days of positive breadth in order to generate buy signals from these breadth oscillators.
Countering that, VIX rose to 23 this week, and then quickly fell back to 18, generating a “spike peak” buy signal. It is marked as a green “B” on the VIX chart. That buy signal will remain in effect for 22 trading days or until VIX closes above its most recent high of 23.08 . Market insight: October seasonal trade Stock market conditions have changed in the past week: SPX has fallen far enough to trigger the setup for the October seasonal trade. That is, SPX has declined more than 3.2% sometime during the month of October. This trade is simple: buy “the market” at the close on October 27th and sell your position at the close on November 2nd. It has to do with fiscal year-end adjustments by mutual funds.
Long 1 SPY SPY Nov 420 put: was originally bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. We are going to hold a put until the weighted ratio rolls over to a buy. Last week we, rolled out to the 428 put, and then when SPY traded at 420 , we rolled do to this put. Continue to roll down every time the put becomes 8 points ITM. In essence, this is our “core” bearish position.
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