The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, has rallied to the top of its downtrend. On the accompanying SPX chart, one can see the red lines defining the lower highs and lower lows that make up the downtrend in SPX. SPX has rallied to nearly the upper red line, which is now at about 4400. A breakout above there would be positive.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to be split. The standard ratio is on a buy signal, but the weighted ratio, despite having rolled over a bit this week, is still rated as being on a sell signal by the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. New Highs and New Lows on the NYSE have been numbering less than 100 each day, so this indicator remains in a neutral state. The previous sell signal was a strong one, but it was stopped out on November 3rd.
New recommendation: A neutral approach With SPX poised near 4400, there is large upside potential if it can break out over that level. However, a failure here could easily see slide all the way back to the bottom of the downtrend range — in the 4100-4200 area. It was a gain of 4.9%, which is not the record. The percent gain record was set in 2008, when SPX gained 13.8%, or 115 points during this 4-day seasonal period.
Long 2 EQR EQR, -1.60% Nov 52.5 puts: We will continue to hold as long as the weighted put-call ratio for EQR remains on a sell signal.
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