China, the largest producer of solar technology and the largest user of that technology, will continue to dominate the industry over the next three years. This is according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie that forecasts that as much as 80% of the global production capacity in polysilicon, solar wafers, cells, and modules will be concentrated in China.
This means there is a substantial potential for excess production that will bring prices even further down. In fact, Wood Mackenzie predicts that some Chinese manufacturers would have to work at a loss, shut down factories, or reduce their production capacity. This would mean even cheaper solar cells and modules, at least for a while until the waters clear.
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