Doubts increase on Wall Street that Q1 will be earnings low point

New York — As Wall Street braces for what may be the first US profit decline since 2016, investors say the first quarter may not mark the low point for 2019 earnings.

As stocks sold off in December, some investors worried 2019 would bring a profit recession for S&P 500 companies, defined as at least two quarters of year-over-year declines. The last US profit recession ran from July 2015 through June 2016. “It would be great if Q1 represented a low point, but I’m not betting on it,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management in Chicago.

Since the start of the year the forecast for second-quarter profit growth has fallen to 3% from 6.4%, while estimated growth for the third quarter has dropped to 2.7% from 4.9%, based on Refinitiv’s data. The fourth-quarter growth estimate has come down as well, though it is still relatively strong, at 9.1%.

Also, Nike’s shares fell 6.61% on Friday after it reported North American sales that fell short of expectations.

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