div > div.group > p:first-child"> Economists weigh both inflationary data and expectations for inflation. Psychological attitudes have always been recognized as being important, and market psychology made a glaring attempt to turn negative last week.
Earnings growth estimates for S&P 500 companies have gone from around 20 percent a year ago to 4 percent to 5 percent this year and next. That's a big deal, though much of the 20 percent growth spike was the result of the corporate tax cut. Paying less in taxes allowed companies to post higher earnings. Moreover, I've long said that economic and market growth could not withstand meaningfully higher interest rates. And we don't have them.
The positive view is that money is inexpensive and available for growth and investment. The negative view is that rates are low because money is racing into bonds and not into any of those vehicles that might produce better returns because future expectations for growth are so bleak. Each winter and spring, I travel around the country giving talks on my economic and market forecast. This year's title is"Unintended Consequences." After 10 years of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and around the world, regulators and central bankers can cheer their success at avoiding deep recessions and depressions.
As with most things dealing with economic and market forecasts, no one has any real idea of what's happening until well after it has happened, and we certainly have no idea about what will really happen in the short-term.
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