NEW YORK - After a stellar start to the year for stocks, investors are on guard for potential bumps in the second quarter as they gauge whether the Federal Reserve delivers on an expected interest rate cut by June and turn their focus on the health of upcoming earnings.
Futures markets are now implying a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut rate at the Fed's policy meeting that concludes June 12, bringing benchmark rates to a range of 5 to 5.25%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Investors should not be surprised if the market rally starts to slow as the Fed nears a potential rate cut, noted Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. Since 1989, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15.5% between the last rate hike of a cycle and the first rate cut, but gained an average of just 5.4% in the six months following the first rate cut, he said.
The likelihood of a market slowdown will also depend largely on corporate earnings, which came in surprisingly robust and helped push the S&P 500 to a series of record closing highs despite the market repricing interest rate policy, said Emily Roland, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
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