On May 9, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at a record high. Yet, the index is still trading at a reasonable multiple relative to historical levels. According to Bloomberg, the 2024 price-to-earnings multiple is 15.2 times, below the 10-year historical average forward multiple of 16.7 times.
Year-to-date, the TSX is up 6.8 per cent, driven higher by the materials and energy sectors that have rallied 18 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively. Consequently, it is no surprise to see stocks in the materials sector leading the way with the greatest increases to their target prices over recent weeks.
Since March 18, when we last published this report, average target prices for approximately 61 per cent of stocks in the index have moved higher. Amongst the stocks with the largest increases to their average target prices are IAMGOLD Corp. . The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low.
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