Today’s inflation report has solidified bets in money markets that more monetary easing is coming soon from the Bank of Canada. Economists are also increasingly confident that rate cuts are on the way.
The Bank of Canada has already cut its policy rate at two consecutive policy-setting meetings, bringing its overnight rate to 4.50%. Money markets are fully priced for a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 4, and in the wake of the data, traders see some - but modest - risk of a large 50 basis point cut at that meeting. Implied interest rate probabilities in swaps markets suggest a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and about a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut, according to LSEG data. Prior to today’s data, swaps pricing suggested less than a 1% chance of the larger 50 basis point cut.