Global shares held steady on Monday, as investors took geopolitical tumult in their stride, leaving oil and gold modestly higher, while the dollar edged up ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could cement a December rate cut.
Friday’s U.S. monthly employment data, which was strong enough to soothe any concerns about the resilience of the economy, but not so robust as to rule out a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, acted as a shock absorber. “The interesting thing is the ‘Trump rally’ has just continued, with no pullback and no opportunities for fresh longs to come in. You have to pay up or you’re missing out. That is very much the feeling of this market at the moment,” he said.
Markets now imply an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 68% ahead of the jobs figures, and have a further three cuts priced in for next year. This week is chock-full of central bank meetings, aside from the ECB. The Swiss National Bank could cut rates by as much as half a point given slowing inflation, as is Canada’s central bank when it meets on Wednesday following an unexpected rise in unemployment for November.
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