That’s the surprising conclusion reached by a contrarian analysis of market sentiment.
Consider the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of Nasdaq-focused stock market timers that my firm monitors on a daily basis. While that’s a lot lower than the excessively bullish readings registered several weeks ago, it remains a lot higher than the extremely pessimistic readings that accompanied significant bottoms of recent years.
Ghost of Christmas past One reason that many bullish traders are stubbornly refusing to throw in the towel is because they have fond memories of what happened around Christmas 2018, three years ago. You may recall that the stock market until then had been plunging, and on Christmas Eve came to the very brink of falling into an official bear market — defined as down at least 20%.
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