“I think that’s a reasonable option for us because the federal funds rate is very low,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Thursday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We do need to move policy back to more neutral levels.”
That message has been clearly heard by investors. Interest-rate futures are almost fully priced for a half-point hike at the Fed’s May 3-4 meeting, when officials could also announce a start date for beginning to shrink their nearly-$9-trillion balance sheet. “We’ve seen a dramatic, significant movement in yields and financial conditions over the past several months and that’s already positioning policy well to get supply and demand back into balance,” he said.
U.S. central bankers, by their own admission, were slow to react and are now viewed as moving with determination to catch up. But the consensus among policy makers starts to fray over how much further above what they judge to be a “neutral” level for interest rates they’ll need to go, if at all.
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