did not intend to offer a precise forecast on the"pace of automation," which he says there is not"any way to credibly forecast." Instead, he says they were focused more on forecasting the scope of jobs that could be at high risk of replacement — whenever widespread AI adoption does materialize. While emerging technologies have impacted many jobs in decades past, it hasn't always led to replacement.
Secretaries and bank tellers, for instance, are doing"completely different jobs" than they were a few decades ago, Frey says, but they haven't been formally replaced — their roles have simply evolved. "I think there's this somewhat misguided distinction between replacement and jobs being changed and transformed by technology," he said.
In general, Frey says technological progress like ChatGPT is good for society. "It's the reason that we're a lot more prosperous today than a couple of hundred years ago." "Some of the more boring parts of the job may disappear," he said."We may be more focusing on generating the right ideas, asking the right questions, things that are more interesting."
At least in the near-term, Frey says humans should maintain an edge over AI in many areas. That's because there are arguably some things ChatGPT can't learn from"Humans don't just interact on the internet," he said."We're out interacting in the real world and draw on experiences there as well. And often, we come up with things that are from a completely different domain that are unlikely to be in the training dataset.
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