Last week’s banning by the Baghdad-based Federal Government of Iraq of oil sales made independently by the government of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq should be seen in the context of the Saudi Arabia-Iran relationship resumption deal done on 10 March. And that context is more easily explained if the deal is written not as the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, but rather as the Saudi Arabia/OPEC-China/Russia/Shia Crescent of Power deal.
Before the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, everything the China-Russia axis had been doing in the Middle East had been to manoeuvre itself into a better position to usurp the influence of the U.S. and its allies in the oil andcentre of the world, the Middle East. After the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, China and Russia are where they want to be, and it is gloves off time.
For a long time, it suited China’s and Russia’s purposes to keep the north and the south of Iraq in a constant state of economic conflict centred on the 2014 budget payments-for-oil deal, as it was unwinnable from a legal perspective and could therefore be dragged out forever.
Now, though, with Saudi Arabia now firmly added to its sphere of influence after years of building up the relationship with Riyadh, as also analysed in depth in, the China-Russia axis feels sufficiently emboldened to signal its true purpose: it is taking full control of the Middle East.