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There is a clear division in opinions about these scenarios among investors. Some stock investors have recently been herding into long-duration, large-cap tech stocks based on the second scenario, while others have been selling the rest of the S&P 500 based on the third scenario. Bond investors, for the most part, seem to be positioned according to the first scenario.Sign up to receive daily headline news from the Calgary Herald, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.
Making a call even tougher is that we keep getting conflicting economic data. First-quarter U.S. consumer spending was up nine per cent year over year, according to Bank of America Corp. data. This makes sense as the expectation is for a whopping first-quarter earnings growth figure of 36.5 per cent among U.S. consumer discretionary sector companies, according to Refinitiv data.
But credit tightening from U.S. banks could have an impact, along with interest rates staying higher for longer. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing index has remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month.
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