Stocks Flash Recession Warning as Trouble Spreads to Industrials

The S&P 500 Industrials index peaked on Aug. 1 and is down about 8% since then, teetering on a correction after several major US carriers cut their profit outlooks for the third quarter on a sudden jump in oil prices. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index has lost more than 11% from its July 31 closing high, roughly twice the decline in the S&P 500 Index over the same time. Steep drops in small-cap and industrial stocks typically occur when the economy is in a recession.

That said, there is hope for stocks. Earnings season is coming, which may matter more than rates for stock prices now according to a model from Bloomberg Intelligence. Companies are expected to post profit declines of just 1.1% in the third quarter, followed by gains for at least the next year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Plus the Federal Reserve this week said it’s forecasting stronger economic growth than it expected just a few months ago.

Small-caps shares sliding may signal expectations for slowing growth. Those companies, which are historically among the first to bottom before broader markets bounce higher, are closely tied to the domestic economy and tend to have less diversified lines of business than their larger peers, making them a riskier bet in times of economic uncertainty.

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