Instant view: China's Q3 GDP grows 4.9% y/y, beats market forecast

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Customers select tomatoes at a stall inside a morning market in Beijing, China August 9, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File photo

Thanks to a slew of policy measures in recent months, the world's second-biggest economy has started to show signs of stabilising, but a protracted property crisis, uncertainties over employment and household income and weak confidence among private firms pose risks to a durable revival.* Sept industrial output +4.5% y/y * Jan-Sept fixed asset investment +3.1% y/y * Jan-Sept property sales by floor area -7.

"Retail sales shows that recovering momentum in spending is still there. The main letdown was that property investment contracted more than expected, so some of these support measures that were announced in July and August didn't seem to have lasting impact to lift the property market. "Overall, the numbers weren't so unbelievably good that you you'd go right well, no need to worry any more.""China's economic data signals the economy hit bottom in the second quarter, and the momentum is likely to continue in the fourth quarter. The probability of meeting the 5% full-year growth target has largely increased lately based on recent economic data, which suggests that the government's efforts to aid its economy have taken effect.

"When we analyze these numbers, we look at the month-on-month numbers. They were worse than August numbers. So, we don't think things are really that great in China. It's improving but not by much. "Consumption growth is accelerating, the manufacturing investment is stabilizing. What is encouraging is that manufacturing and infrastructure investment have offset some of the downward pressure brought by the real estate. The previous easing measures played a certain role."

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