There will be no Santa Claus rally in the stock market this month, or in the first three weeks of December.
So be on your guard in coming weeks to what undoubtedly will be a growing number of predictions that a Santa Claus rally will begin. Some even say it’s already started. I reached this conclusion after measuring the maximum possible rally that occurs over the last two months of the year — from November’s low to December’s high. You’d have to possess remarkable clairvoyance to actually capture this gain, since you’d need advance knowledge of when the low and high will occur. But measuring the rally in this way enables us to determine if there is greater rally potential in the last two months of the year than any other time.
The bottom line? The stock market no doubt will rally over the next couple of weeks. But don’t ask Santa to produce that rally — he’s busy these days with his other pre-holiday tasks.
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