It may be hard to find true "undecideds" in the political arena at this point, but there are a few lively debates and plenty of position-switching in markets with ten weeks remaining in what has been a rewarding, but consensus-snubbing, year for investors. Is the month-long surge in Treasury yields a confirmation, a refutation, or a threat, to the prevailing soft-economic-landing outlook? Is the market's attempt to front-run potential U.S.
" But isn't this also what one would expect to happen with a Fed easing into a good economy and corporate earnings beating forecasts at an above-average pace, which reflects today's observed reality? Pat Tschosik, senior portfolio manager at Ned Davis Research, notes that while recent market moves have correlated to betting-market odds of a Donald Trump victory, "it is difficult to separate market drivers like election sentiment from positive macro surprises…While Trump...
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