Listen to business owners and voters in Erie, Pennsylvania. They could help decide the White House.

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In every presidential election since 1992, Erie County has gone for the candidate who ended up winning Pennsylvania.

By Matt Brown, Associated PressSmall business owner Michael Hooks works in the kitchen of his catering business in Erie, Pa. Friday, Nov. 1, 2024.

“I’ve got to be one of the only Black businesses on this street,” he says, noting that his repair shop stands on Peach Street, one of the city’s main traffic arteries. He appreciates the greetings from passersby. But he says many people who know him from the neighborhoods where he grew up will never step foot in the shop. Almost all his customers are white.

“Erie is a pivot point,” said Rhonda Matthews, co-founder of Erie Black Wall Street, a business group that supports local Black entrepreneurs. From population rates to business startups, the future of Erie’s economy and politics have shown where the country may be heading. “I think if you want to know about what’s happening economically writ large in the country, you can look and see what’s happening in Erie.

But Whiting added that “broad brush” policies such as Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on all foreign goods threatened to be “an inflation bomb that would crush small businesses” like those he works with. Whiting viewed Harris’ proposed investments for small businesses to be a potential boon. A no tax on tips policy, which both Harris and Trump favor, would be a welcome innovation for workers, he said.

“I try to keep it like Geneva in here,” he said, referring to the city in famously neutral Switzerland. “In this town, we could have Trump, Kamala and Kennedy supporters sitting right next to each other at the bar.” Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the race until August, when he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.Born and raised in Erie, Hooks grew up in poverty and with few options, support or direction for his life. At 23, he was sentenced to 30 years for dealing marijuana.

“It’s because we have people in this country that want to be better than someone else,” he said in a recent interview. “You drive a Toyota Camry, I drive the Lexus. It’s the same ... car. It’s just a different name, but it’s a higher status.”

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