After that, there won’t be much activity for the rest of the year. Whatever impressions the market takes away this week will likely drive the final weeks of trading until we head into 2025.
This is something to watch closely, especially if the Fed can’t cut rates as much as people expect due to persistent inflation and a relatively stable job market. In that scenario, we’re likely to see a bear steepener, where the Central banks globally, engaging in quantitative tightening, are straining dealer balance sheets. This pressure is reflected in metrics like the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line, which has been declining, as well as thetotal return December futures contracts , carrying costs are rising, particularly for January and March contracts, while December contracts have declined.
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