Market Breadth Deteriorates, Global Rates Spike

The market breadth continues to deteriorate. The S&P saw 378 declining stocks compared to only 120 advancing stocks. Even with Tesla's 3.5% gain contributing 2 points to the index, the Bloomberg 500 proxy for the S&P would have shown a worse decline. While the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ratio-adjusted finished at -73.5 (not extremely oversold), the NYSE Summation Index, a cumulative measure of the McClellan Oscillator, closed at 88.

A drop below zero in this index could signal broader market changes. Another key indicator, NYSE new highs minus new lows, showed 119 more new lows. This metric appears to be rolling over on a cumulative basis, although it's still early and such patterns have reversed in the past. The index is finding support around 6,030, while resistance remains near 6,100. Implied volatility is relatively low at 13.5 for the upcoming meeting, but this number will likely climb as we approach the meeting and fall after the press conference. Global rates, especially in the UK and Japan, are noteworthy. Yields are approaching big levels last seen during the fall of 2022 and summer of 2023, reaching the highs seen during the September 2022 “mini-budget” turmoil. JGBs are near their highs and appear poised to break out

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