Emerging market FX to struggle against mighty U.S. dollar this year: Reuters poll

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Hobbled emerging market currencies will struggle over the next three months against the stronger dollar as tensions between the United States and China over the coronavirus pandemic mount, a Reuters poll of FX strategists showed.

FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Dollar note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

“This is likely to put a serious dent in the head-scratching, math-defying risk-on rally we have seen for much of the week,” said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank in Hong Kong. Even though the pandemic has subsided in China for now, a possible resumption of the U.S.-China trade war will nudge Beijing’s authorities to keep a tight leash on its partly managed yuan currency, the poll suggested.

“Break through the latter and we are in a dark and scary tunnel...and we don’t know if the light we see ahead is a way out or just the reflection of a monster’s eye.” “Volatility is still high from the peaks of last month. It will only subside further if we get a bit more improvement in the COVID situation and any kind of tensions between the U.S. and China don’t flare up,” Keenan added.

 

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