Bulls are betting the economy will bounce back with the help of massive monetary and fiscal support, while bears are worried about a second wave of coronavirus cases as well as US-China tensions, nationwide protests, and other factors.Stocks are either far too high or they have further to run, depending on which investment bank you listen to.
"We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality," Manolo Falco, co-head of investment banking at Citigroup,"As the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks," he continued. Citi is telling all of its clients to "tap the market if they can" because it doubts the cost of raising fresh capital will go any lower, he added.In contrast, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argue stocks could climb higher as rock-bottom interest rates and ample liquidity spur investors to shift their money from bonds to shares.. "There is still plenty of room for investors to raise their equity allocations.
Indeed, the JPMorgan team expect non-bank investors such as households, pension funds, and sovereign-wealth funds to boost the percentage of equities in their portfolios from 40% to 49% in the coming years, Bloomberg said.The strikingly different views of the stock market's future direction reflect a slew of factors.
Bears argue investors are delusional to shrug off a global pandemic and a potential second wave of coronavirus cases.
Both are true. And neither situation makes any sense.
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