Central bank firepower helped stock market bulls finish the first half of 2020 on a high. Now the rally hinges on follow-through in the third-quarter from economic data, company earnings and the coronavirus newsflow.
Latest numbers from jobs to manufacturing have kept momentum going. But what comes next is important - for investors as well as possibly for U.S. President Donald Trump's re-election prospects in November. What complicates the picture is that the figures mostly do not reflect record rises in U.S. infections and renewed lockdowns.
"The rate of change matters more than the level," said Morgan Stanley's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets."Markets have got it right."It's still tough, for some, to square exalted share prices with the economic outlook. Citi strategists say consensus expectations for end-2021 earnings per share are 30per cent too high.
Reporting season is important for another reason - Morgan Stanley's Sheets notes that current price/earnings ratios encompass a dire second quarter.
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