The market may be about to pause, this strategist says — but he’s still optimistic about stocks next year

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Early next year, the economy may stall due to the second wave of coronavirus globally, this strategist says. “The combination of extreme bullishness, broad acceptance of the economic recovery rotation... have us looking for a near-term pause.'

With the 30th record close for the S&P 500 on Tuesday, and the 50th record finish for the Nasdaq Composite, it isn’t hard to find market observers who think the stock market is getting just a little carried away.

He calls valuation targets “useless” in an era of zero interest rates and unlimited quantitative easing, though the bottom valuation should be 20 times earnings, the historic average with core inflation between 1% and 3%. That implies a floor of 3,520 for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.18%, which closed on Tuesday at 3,702.25. In an email, Dwyer added that the concentration of the companies that drive the S&P 500 also is a reason he no longer provides S&P 500 targets.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to have dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as the two sides attempt to reach a trade deal. The U.K. also said it will suspend retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. levied as part of the Airbus-Boeing dispute. Meanwhile, Poland’s deputy prime minister said a European Union budget deal should be reached by Friday.

SoftBank 9984, +5.57% rose in Tokyo trade, on a Bloomberg News report that the investment group was considering a gradual buyout of its outstanding shares.

 

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