Posthaste: What we can expect after the most surprising year in the history of Canada’s housing market

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It may not be as gloomy as some think

“The year just ended will easily go down as the most surprising in the history of Canada’s housing market,” wrote RBC economist Robert Hogue in a note yesterday. “The worst global pandemic in generations clearly couldn’t stop Canadians’ desire to own a home.”

Most interesting was that condos, a market deeply bruised by the pandemic, showed a rebound as buyers came back looking for bargains. But what lies ahead for Canada’s housing market? The wide range of forecasts out there signals just how uncertain the horizon is, said Capital Economics. Most forecasters expect price growth to slow over the next year, but some expect declines of anywhere between 3% and 10%.

Capital economist Stephen Brown argues that in order for an increase in housing supply to quash price growth, new listings would have to jump 50,000 a month, or 70%, for a sustained period.

 

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Another 20% price increase yoy

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