‘Very, very concerning’ echoes of the 90s dot-com bubble are being heard loud and clear by nervous market experts.12-year-old bull market; SPAC mania; IPOs that more than double on the first trading day; an army of amateur traders and GameStop mania. It certainly feels like irrational exuberance–and it triggers alarms for those who remember the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
Despite a steep 30% market correction last year, the longest bull market on record has helped the S&P 500 surge nearly 300% over the past ten years–roughly in line with the growth in the ten years preceding the dot-com crash in 2000, after which stocks plunged 40% over two years.analyzed 11 key market metrics that flashed warning signs just before the stock market crashed in March 2000.
, he introduced a price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 that averages inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior ten years in an effort to eliminate cyclical swings. Though not as steep as the peak P/E ratio leading up to the dot-com bubble crash in March 2000, today’s Shiller P/E multiples are the highest they have been in two decades. “Valuations on Wall Street are in the stratosphere,” says Stack.
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