A speculative Fed surprise lifts bond yields, slams stocks

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Bond yields jumped to pre-pandemic levels, lifting the US dollar and pushing down stocks ahead of a possible surprise from the Fed next week.

US bond yields jumped to pre-pandemic levels, lifting the US dollar and slamming stocks, ahead of a possible early interest rate surprise from the Federal Reserve next week, at odds with the omicron wave and a plea by China's president to calm rate hawks.

The entire US yield curve jumped 6 basis points to 8 basis points on Tuesday, extending Friday’s sharp gains, following a market holiday on Monday. Two-year US Treasury yields, which track short-term interest rate expectations, crossed 1 per cent for the first time since February 2020 to trade at 1.04 per cent. Ten-year yields rose to a two-year peak of 1.88 per cent. Further out along the curve, yields reached multi-month peaks with the 20-year touching an eight-month high of 2.27 per cent and 30-year yields a seven-month peak of 2.20 per cent.

Emerging markets also felt the pinch as most Asian sharemarkets turned lower. The Mexican peso, Brazil’s real and Thailand’s baht fell, but China’s yuan showed resilience. It was changing hands at 6.3522 against the dollar at midday, after hitting 6.3368 on Tuesday, its highest level in more than three years. China’s central bank set the mid-point at 6.3623 on Wednesday.The US dollar benefited, jumping to 95.76 against a basket of major currencies.

 

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