BEIJING : Shaken by a liquidity crunch among developers, China's property market is expected to stay soft in the first half of 2022 before rebounding later in the year as policies aimed at encouraging buyers helps sentiment recover, a Reuters poll showed.
Average home prices are estimated to fall 1.0per cent on year in the first half, according a Reuters survey of 17 analysts and economists conducted between Feb. 16-23. The estimate was unchanged from that of a Reuters poll in November."Home prices are likely to rise if curbs are relaxed," said Li Qilin, chief economist at Hongta Securities, adding the credit environment and regulatory policies on real estate have marginally eased since the beginning of this year.
Analysts are more upbeat on housing demand and supply than in the last Reuters survey, though they said sentiment has not fully recovered and real estate firms still face financing pressure. "Home buyers' confidence has not yet been restored, and discounts are still a key marketing tool," Huang Yu, vice president of China Index Academy, a Beijing-based property research institute.
Investment by real estate firms is expected to fall 2.0per cent in the first half and gain 1.5per cent for the whole year. Reuters previously forecast investment would drop 3.0per cent in the first half of 2022.