The Russian army continued its halting advance into Ukrainian territory Friday, but with the war entering its third week it’s clear that President Vladimir Putin will not get the quick-and-easy victory he reportedly expected.
He added that the same insularity that made Putin underestimate the Ukrainian will to resist may also have clouded his judgement on the impact of sanctions. Galeev argues that the authoritarian nature of the Putin regime, which he and western diplomats say operates similarly to an organized crime syndicate, means it is unable to foster industries that require technical sophistication. He notes that President Putin cheered the decline in the value of the ruble RUBUSD, following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, because it made Russian oil cheaper on the global market and boosted ruble-denominated revenues.
Galeev’s theory is that a “mafia state” like Russia is unable to foster complex domestic manufacturing industries because such states select officials not for technical competence, but for the ability to inspire fear in opponents and for their loyalty to the leader.
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