WASHINGTON - APRIL 02: U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Michele Flournoy testifies during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill April 2, 2009 in Washington, DC. “Things will get worse before they get better”. This is the first piece of advice that Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for President Obama and deputy assistant defense secretary for President Clinton, tells her clients when they ask about Russia’s war with Ukraine.
She also points to Putin’s misplaced faith in his ‘modern’ Russian military, which perhaps due to surrounding himself with ‘yes men’ led him to expect a swift victory similar to its 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula in southeastern Ukraine. When looking for historical parallels to today’s conflict, many analysts look to the German invasion of the Sudetenland in 1938 as a cautionary tale for the dangers of appeasement. But Flournoy has a different World War II analogy, likening the Russian incursion into Ukraine to Hitlet’s ill-fated invasion of Russia in 1942. “That was the overreach that caused him to lose the war, but he didn't know it.
Then the question goes to how Putin responds. It's also not out of the question that this misadventure has major consequences for Putin personally. “It's a low probability event. But as things play out, if you see more Russian protests and more unhappiness among the oligarchs, he [Putin] could lose his job, and possibly his life.”
Additionally, from China’s point of view Flournoy notes that President Xi Jinping has no interest in becoming an international pariah. Additionally, Flournoy points out that it is important for observers to not be fooled by China’s perceived close relationship with Russia or growing financial ties between the countries. In fact, she thinks that the war in Ukraine could lead to a chilling of relations between the two countries over time.
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