The Oil Market After The War

In theory, these volumes would raise on-land inventories fairly quickly, and could mean a sharp bump down in backwardation—potentially to contango. However, given that OECD inventories, which are about half the global total, are down by 300 million barrels compared to the five-year average, this will not rebalance the market. Prices are likely to remain above $80 until inventories grow much more., but are not guaranteed to do so. Countries like the U.S.

The upshot is that an end or lessening of the conflict in Ukraine would mean more oil on the market and lower inventories at sea and in Russian storage, which will certainly cause oil prices to drop, especially if traders are convinced the prospect of European oil sanctions has sharply receded. With little or no demand effect, oil prices should drop at least $10 from current levels, and WTI could even test $80 by early summer if it appears the oil demand during the U.S.

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