Rough quarter for EM currencies, stocks even as China steadies

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Emerging market currencies and stocks on Thursday were set for their worst quarterly performances since the pandemic-driven crash in early 2020 as investors feared about sky-high inflation.

Currencies of countries that import commodities such as the Turkish lira and Indian rupee have suffered during the quarter, while those of exporters including the Brazilian real and the rand have remained resilient as oil and metal prices soared.

Hungary's forint weakened against the euro as a rally from record lows this week after the central bank's big rate hike proved short-lived. Forint has been central and eastern Europe's worst-performing currency this year on concerns about high budget deficit and soaring energy costs among others. The MSCI's index of emerging market equities slid 1%, on course to mark quarterly losses of about 12%.

The index has climbed almost 19% since hitting a trough in April, although the economic outlook for the world's second-largest economy remains subdued amid worries of a global economic slowdown.“The rebound in Chinese stock prices is probably a mean-reversion to pre-lockdown levels, rather than a sustainable rally,” analysts at BCA Research wrote in a note. “This cautious view on Chinese equities is also corroborated by falling raw industrial prices, which reflect weak Chinese growth.

 

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