To make this make sense, again, several conflicting things have to be true at the same time. Recessions have to be, because of all the easier monetary policy they imply, and/or peak fear is over, and/or markets have already priced in sticky inflation and a hard landing.
a level that since 1960 has been consistent with annualised returns in a healthy 7-9 per cent range over the next decadeis also borne out in the historical data. Since 1960, a strategy that waited for a 10 per cent correction before buying the S&P 500 and then sold at a new all-time high would have underperformed a buy-and-hold strategy by 80x . Over the same time period, a strategy of investing immediately after a 20 per cent drop would have delivered an average one-year return of 15.
His chart here of how a theoretical 50/50 portfolio of US equities and government bonds would have performed over close to a century rather hammers home that point: “To me there’s no rush,” she said. “A number of the big goalposts are shifting. We never really appreciated the value of the globalisation [that we saw] after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolving of the Soviet Union . . . Just-in-time supply chains were a huge benefit to consumers globally and to the profitability of businesses worldwide.”
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