Larry Berman: It's a bear market, is it time to sell high? - BNN Bloomberg

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By all metrics, we are in an end of cycle bear market. The yield curve (the cost of money) is our best leading indicator. Historically, bull markets have almost always ended with a recession.

There have been exceptions with the market crash in 1987 for example being the most notable investors today may remember where there was no recession. I had just started my career in the investment industry in 1986 on a part time basis while in university. The Greenspan Fed was raising rates in 1987, but there was no recession. There was also no yield curve inversion prior to the crash. After a post crash pause, the Fed kept raising rates in 1988 and 1989 inverting the curve.

As every economist well knows, the transmission of monetary policy happens with a lag. Just wait until the mortgage refinancing kick in over the next few years. Discretionary spending will likely suffer. At the end of August, the Federal Reserve will meet at Jackson Hole and we expect the FOMC will reiterate that fighting inflation and pricing out any idea of an ease in 2023 is their goal.

 

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