OPINION | The end of easy money - how investment management has changed since 2020 | Fin24

In March 2020, just before the world was turned upside down, I was about to give a presentation about what we thought the five biggest trends in asset and wealth management were. Now, over two years later, it’s interesting to reflect on how those predictions played out and what has changed in the interim. The first trend we identified in 2020 was"lower for longer". I showed a graph that illustrated how rates were at historically very low levels.

However, other things affecting rates have changed dramatically over the past two years. Global supply chain issues, increasing geopolitical risks and liquidity shocks have sparked inflation fears. While initially the overriding rhetoric was that the increase in global inflation was temporary, many central banks have now admitted that they were behind the curve and are now in a difficult place having to play catch-up.

The second big trend that we identified in 2020 was the pervasive impact of technology on three areas: efficiency, client experience and cybersecurity. The efficiency component was a no-brainer – all businesses need to use technology to make their businesses more efficient while also improving the client experience. Covid-19 accelerated this trend in a range of ways such as virtual client meetings, digital events or the increased use of digital transactions.

As the world enters a new phase of recovery from the effects of Covid-19, the key question is which digital trends will remain, and which parts will return to"in-person". Getting the balance right will be critical and therefore, the trend we called"technology" in 2020, has been updated to the more appropriately named"digital and hybrid". The third trend I spoke about in 2020 was fees, which we predicted would experience increasing pressure.

Furthermore, the change made in the budget speech of 2022 increasing the offshore limits for retirement funds to 45% will accelerate the trend to invest offshore. A rough calculation estimates that between R400 billion to R500 billion could leave the South African asset management industry as a result.

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