Certain volatility-linked investment strategies could ramp up selling of equities if turbulence in the stock market, which has been stoked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rate rises, gets much worse.
That’s a worry for investors since there is evidence volatility-control funds can be a strong pro-cyclical force in bear markets, helping to further exacerbate sell-offs. And September has historically been the toughest month for the U.S. stock market. But Grinacoff estimates that a pickup in S&P 500 one-month realized volatility to between 35 and 40 could cause these funds to sell around $10 billion over the course of a week.
“That makes them punch well above their AUM weight,” said Parag Thatte, a strategist at Deutsche Bank.