expects EVs will represent 17.5% of the US auto market by 2027. And while China and Europe are expected both to reach 50% EV share by 2030, “the US will likely be closer to the 30-40% range,” Waatti says.
AutoForecast Solutions is more EV-optimistic, expecting US market share to reach 29.71% in 2027 and 36.7% in 2029—a sufficiently large market to satisfy the expected 16-state ZEV standard six years ahead of time.ZoZoGo’s prognostication comes in absolute numbers: 14 million BEVs in China, 7 million in Europe, and 4 million in the US by 2030, Dunne says.
The shortcomings of this post-industrial paradigm shift from ICE to BEV does not happen in a vacuum, of course.While 16 states buyingshould make a dent in greenhouse gas emissions, we’ll still have huge fleets of airliners and private jets and, presumably, a bitcoin market. So long as EV materials and production are limited, most of the 2030-35 production will have to go to those 16 states, with consumers in the remaining 34 states leaning toward ICE vehicles.
Despite all these shortcomings in the technology—or perhaps because of them—the electric vehicle revolution has passed its point of no return, and these latest market share predictions could become obsolete in a few more years.
someone at AW is sniffing glue again 🤪