That was the message from investors hitting the sell button in September as the Federal Reserve renewed its vow to use rapid interest rate hikes to fight stubbornly high inflation, even if it spells pain for households and businesses.
“The problem is that at the end of last year, we were priced for perfection and now we are discounting for a disaster,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, by phone. Government bond returns were at -9.1% six months into the Ukraine war, according to BofA Global, a steeper decline than the same time frame of other war in the past 70 years.
Ultimately, though, bond yields have nearly doubled this year as the Fed has sharply increased its benchmark interest rate to combat 40-year high inflation. That dynamic has enticed investors to hunt for bargains, while also keeping them on alert for the next crisis to erupt in markets. The damage looks particularly harsh when comparing it to the yearly gains for stocks, bonds, housing and commodities in a typical year over roughly the past five decades.