Small businesses expect a recession, but hiring plans remain robust - San Francisco Business Times

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After navigating the pandemic, supply chain headaches, a labor shortage and soaring inflation, most small businesses are confident they can weather a recession — and they do believe one is coming.

After navigating an unexpected pandemic and its many accompanying challenges, America’s small businesses have been through a lot in the past two years.

The survey found 67% of respondents believe a recession is likely to affect their businesses in the next 12 months, but 66% still believe their revenue is likely to increase and 52% expect to expand their businesses over the same period of time, with both metrics posting improvement since the spring despite rising inflation and growing concerns about the economy.

“Entrepreneurs and business owners, they can control their business. They can control their activity,” Miller said. “So when it comes to their own business, they feel more confident than what might be happening with the political environment, with inflation and commodity prices.” Additionally, 61% of business owners said labor shortages were affecting their business, which was up from 41% in the spring. That dovetails with comments from economists who believe even a recession won't significantly ease hiring burdens for businesses, thanks in large part to the nation's shifting demographics and the wide gulf between the number of job openings and the number of unemployed Americans.

 

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