Despite forecasting a"tough year" for Singapore in 2023, UOB KH thinks the STI will outperform.
This is despite a “bumpy” recovery for the global economy post Covid-19, with concerns such as inflation and higher interest rates dominating the market’s attention. In 2023, UOB KH forecasts an aggregate 6% earnings per share growth in 2023 for the Singapore market with the aviation, financial, and telecommunications sectors leading the way, followed by the consumer and gaming sectors.
Their 2023 STI target is based on 6% earnings growth for 2023, and target PE and P/B of 12.9x and 1.3x respectively, both of which are at about a 15% discount to the index’s long-term average. This is in contrast to the 3.5% growth shown in 2022, with UOB KH pointing out that near-term non-oil domestic export data and the purchasing managers index have been weak, with the export and manufacturing sectors negatively impacted by slowing demand from China and the US.They add that while the “China reopening story” - referring to China recently relaxing its Covid-19 measures - may see a short-term bullish reaction in the market, they believe that recessionary risks persist nonetheless.