‘Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates — eventually’: Housing drives inflation, but U.S. property market is cooling

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Shelter costs rose 0.6% in March from the previous month, compared to an increase of 0.8% in February.

The U.S. economy is still dealing with high inflation, but the housing sector is showing signs of cooling off.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in March from the previous month, according to the latest report from the federal government. It was the smallest uptick in 3 months, and was lower than usual due to an easing in energy costs.Economists said the latest CPI data indicated a slowdown in housing inflation, which ultimately will benefit home buyers.

Yun said it appears “very likely” that mortgage rates will fall below 6% towards the end of the year. U.S. consumers are slightly less pessimistic, and expect rates to be in the 8% range. Private data sources, such as from Apartment List, show that the rent index is only up 2.6% year-over-year, versus the federal government’s estimate of 8.8%, as seen in the chart below.

 

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