U.S. real estate stocks are struggling this year after a rough 2022, as fears that banks will tighten lending standards pile pressure on a sector already hit by higher interest rates.
“There is nothing about the current banking situation ... that made life easier for real estate companies,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel. Because banks have lost deposits, “they will be just more careful who they lend money to,” he said. “They just recently provided guidance with their fourth quarter earnings and they have to deliver that,” he said.
“While the market has clearly priced in a lot of negativity for office REITs, rising delinquency rates and the upward trajectory of vacancy rates implies there could be more downside risk ahead,” wrote LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist in a note earlier this week. Investors are pricing in another rate increase at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next month, with rates then starting to fall after the summer. The Fed, on the other hand, has projected rates will remain around current levels for the rest of 2023.Greg Kuhl, portfolio manager on the global property equities team at Janus Henderson, said most publicly traded real estate companies still have sufficient access to capital if they require it, despite last month’s banking issues.