Technical indicators such as equity price movement largely show stocks are poised to continue a rally that has seen the S&P 500 climb 8% year-to-date, analysts who track them said. Many investors who look to fundamentals, on the other hand, see choppy waters ahead when they study measures like corporate earnings and valuations.
"Everybody is very, very negative," but from a technical perspective, the market looks good, he said.has traded in a 9.7 percentage point range year-to-date, its narrowest range for comparable periods since 2017. With the index now at 4,129.79 and 16% above its October lows, technicians see evidence it can extend its gains.
Many technicians also say the market’s year-to-date resilience bodes well for stocks. The S&P 500 has traded higher 83% of the time for the full year, returning an average 13.73%, when it hasn't dropped below the preceding year’s December low in the first quarter, a Piper Sandler analysis showed. Not all technical indicators are rosy, though. A recent JPMorgan report noted the market's "underwhelming breadth," with this year's gains mostly driven by a handful of megacap stocks.Patrick Kaser, head of the fundamental equity team at Brandywine Global, is preparing his portfolios for a potential U.S. recession by reducing exposure to economically sensitive sectors such as financials and industrials.