The investment bank highlighted that a year of high mortgage rates has put a dent into the housing market, with a record-breaking decline in activity and sales transactions, combined with a mild correction in home prices.
The investment bank forecasted a 4% price decline for homes this year, and so far the incoming data has been consistent with that estimate. But "All in all, the housing cycle is bottoming, but we don't expect a big rebound. In our GDP forecasts, the direct contribution to growth from residential investment improves from -0.5 percentage points in 2022 to -0.1 percentage point this year before rising to 0.1 percentage point in 2024," Zenter said.
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