The S&P 500 index continues to struggle in a tight range and some analysts see little prospect for a breakout until two, very big worries are in the rearview mirror.
No surprise, the culprits are the persistent worries about regional U.S. banks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March and the subsequent demise of First Republic Bank, along with the latest debt-ceiling showdown in Washington that threatens to tip the federal government into a first-ever default in early June.
The S&P 500 SPX fell 0.3% last week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA dropped 1.1%. The S&P 500’s decline was cushioned by megacap tech-related stocks, which also helped lift the Nasdaq Composite COMP out of a bear market, gaining 0.4% last week. “Additionally, if banks think their regulatory costs will increase or regulators are going to deeply investigate their operations, they’ll hold even more capital in reserve, further reducing the capital available for loans. The result could be a widespread reduction in lending in the economy,” he said.Debt-ceiling showdown Meanwhile, the stock market appears for now to be looking past the debt-ceiling drama in Washington.
Given a history of brinkmanship around debt-ceiling talks, there’s a strong chance talks go down to the 11th hour. If so, it isn’t hard to imagine a late breakdown that sparks an equity pullback of around 5% or so, she said, while a prolonged impasse could see a drop of as much as 10%. In One Chart: The S&P 500 is top-heavy with tech. Here’s what that says about future stock-market returns.A handful of names leading the market “is never considered healthy when there’s vast underlying weakness,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, in a note.