in “attribution science,” the field that identifies climate change’s role in heat waves, droughts, rising seas, and other phenomena, have made it possible to quantify its effect on fires. The new study relies on a key risk factor called the “
To figure out how companies’ emissions contributed to fire-danger conditions in the West, researchers built on athat linked emissions from 88 big fossil fuel producers to rising temperatures. Then they compared two models of how dry forests would be under different climate scenarios — one modeled on the real world, and the other excluding the emissions associated with the 88 companies.
Translating the research to a specific court case could prove thorny, though. The study looked at a large region, the whole North American West, and the aggregate of 88 companies’ emissions. It’s possible that attorneys could use the new research to calculate wildfire risk over a smaller area — say, Boulder County — but it would require some extrapolation. For calculating damages, a court might want to see a more fine-grained analysis, Wentz said.